• 微博
  • 微信微信二维码

广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

11倍PE的Discover(探索频道),投资机会显现?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月19日 19:23:41
【字体:

拉菲娱乐账户冻结信誉平台官方,招龙虎和代理注册实力招商主管Q扣99277339,永久注册网址www.yicai269.com时时彩龙虎和,意彩彩票代理,意彩官网,意彩平台注册,意彩乐官网,意彩娱乐官方网站11倍PE的Discover(探索频道),投资机会显现?

中超1红人再次入选国家队名单:世界杯就能看到他! Deltastock:欧元、日元、英镑交易策略 越战越勇,战个痛快!EOPEN西安站第四战火热招募中! “EOPEN易赛网球公开赛”合肥站招募开启! 拒绝当一个打麻将的慵懒大熊猫!EOPEN成都战邀您来战! 2017武网|彭帅:最大收获战胜科娃 与米尔扎合作待定 接招!EOPEN易赛网球公开赛天津站火力开打! 2017深网|张之臻鏖战三盘止步八强,头号种子兹维列夫爆冷出局 令人闻风丧胆的网球武林大会来了,你怕了吗 | EOPEN 郑州站等你来战 EOPEN易赛网球公开赛 | 芜湖站招募开启! FCA就一家无牌经营公司警告投资者 “文化北京”大型系列图片展之中网十四周年摄影作品征集活动评选结果出炉! 2017中网女单签表的看点都在这里了! 爱豆都这么努力,你也要上好最后一天班啊! 厉害了小花,19岁高馨妤生涯首胜TOP100 |9月30日赛果

(原)(标)(题)(:11倍)(PE的)(Discover(探)(索)(频)(道)(),投)(资)(机)(会)(显)(现)(?
%\b)(弧)(⒈尘)(敖)(樯)(埸)(br />探)(索)(频)(道)((DiscoveryChannel)是)(由)(探)(索)(通)(信)(公)(司)((DiscoveryCommunications)于)(1985年)(创)(立)(的)(。探)(索)(频)(道)(主)(要)(播)(放)(流)(行)(科)(学)(、崭)(新)(科)(技)(和)(历)(史)(考)(古)(的)(纪)(录)(片)(。
世)(界)(各)(地)(均)(有)(播)(放)(探)(索)(频)(道)(,但)(探)(索)(频)(道)(会)(因)(应)(不)(同)(地)(区)(的)(文)(化)(风)(俗)(设)(立)(不)(同)(版)(本)(,播)(放)(不)(同)(类)(型)(的)(纪)(录)(片)(,并)(加)(上)(字)(幕)(或)(配)(音)(。美)(国)(版)(本)(主)(要)(放)(送)(写)(实)(电)(视)(节)(目)(,包)(括)(推)(理)(调)(查)(节)(目)(、驾)(驶)(系)(列)(和)(行)(业)(介)(绍)(等)(等)(,如)(著)(名)(的)(流)(言)(终)(结)(者)(系)(列)(;但)(也)(同)(时)(放)(映)(合)(家)(欢)(和)(儿)(童)(纪)(录)(片)(。亚)(洲)(各)(个)(版)(本)(的)(探)(索)(频)(道)(除)(着)(重)(播)(放)(写)(实)(节)(目)(之)(外)(,也)(着)(重)(播)(放)(文)(化)(节)(目)(,如)(介)(绍)(中)(国)(、日)(本)(传)(统)(文)(化)(的)(一)(系)(列)(节)(目)(。
首)(先)(呢)(,我)(们)(来)(简)(单)(了)(解)(一)(下)(DiscoveryCommunicationIncorporation(以)(下)(简)(称)(DCI)的)(基)(本)(构)(成)(。
DCI是)(私)(人)(经)(营)(的)(多)(元)(化)(传)(媒)(的)(公)(司)(,总)(部)(位)(于)(美)(国)(马)(里)(兰)(州)(贝)(塞)(斯)(达)(。DCI是)(世)(上)(最)(大)(的)(纪)(录)(片)(生)(产)(公)(司)(,旗)(下)(有)(四)(个)(子)(公)(司)(:
1.Discovery美)(国)(传)(播)(网)(
2.Discovery国)(际)(传)(播)(网)(
3.Discovery国)(际)(企)(业)(
4.Discovery主)(题)(活)(动)(
Discovery美)(国)(传)(播)(网)(包)(括)(:Discovery探)(索)(频)(道)(、学)(习)(频)(道)((TLC)、动)(物)(星)(球)(、旅)(游)(频)(道)(、DiscoveryHealthChannel、DiscoveryPeople、Discovery
KidsChannel、DiscoveryScienceChannel、DiscoveryHomeandLeisureChannel、DiscoveryCivilizationChannel和)(DiscoveryenEspanol。该)(网)(络)(同)(时)(推)(扩)(和)(播)(映)(于)(1998年)(开)(播)(的)(BBCAmerica。
Discovery国)(际)(传)(播)(网)(,包)(括)(5个)(不)(同)(频)(道)(共)(32条)(线)(路)(,通)(过)(15颗)(卫)(星)(用)(24种)(语)(言)(在)(全)(球)(播)(映)((美)(国)(除)(外)()。
Discovery国)(际)(企)(业)(包)(括)(有)(:Discovery互)(动)(式)(多)(媒)(体)(、Discovery在)(线)(、Discovery录)(影)(带)(、Discovery出)(版)(社)(、Discovery教)(育)(部)(和)(Discovery商)(业)(零)(售)(业)(务)(。
Discovery主)(题)(活)(动)(包)(括)(:DiscoveryPictures、Discovery体)(验)(大)(自)(然)(和)(其)(他)(户)(外)(冒)(险)(活)(动)(。
DCI有)(四)(个)(股)(东)(:Tele-Communication公)(司)((Nasdaq:LBTA/LBTYB)的)(分)(支)(机)(构)(:自)(由)(媒)(体)(公)(司)((LibertyMediaCorporation)、舵)(手)(传)(播)(公)(司)((NYSE:CoxCommunications)、Advance/Newhouse传)(播)(公)(司)(,和)(本)(公)(司)(的)(创)(办)(人)(兼)(总)(裁)(约)(翰)(亨)(德)(瑞)(。
目)(前)(Discover的)(PE只)(有)(11.34倍)(,如)(果)(计)(算)(现)(金)(流)(的)(话)(,这)(个)(数)(字)(连)(10倍)(都)(不)(到)(。为)(什)(么)(这)(个)(公)(司)(这)(么)(“便)(宜)(”呢)(?这)(是)(一)(个)(投)(资)(机)(会)(吗)(?
%\*)(鋒?iscover处)(在)(一)(个)(什)(么)(样)(的)(行)(业)(里)(?
Discover所)(处)(于)(的)(行)(业)(是)(美)(国)(付)(费)(电)(视)(行)(业)(。如)(果)(想)(更)(好)(的)(了)(解)(这)(部)(分)(内)(容)(,建)(议)(大)(家)(去)(读)(一)(下)(大)(隐)(于)(市)(写)(的)(《美)(国)(付)(费)(电)(视)(行)(业)(70年)(沉)(浮)(之)(Netflix崛)(起)(》。这)(篇)(文)(章)(应)(该)(把)(整)(个)(电)(视)(行)(业)(的)(基)(本)(脉)(络)(梳)(理)(的)(比)(较)(清)(晰)(。
传)(统)(的)(付)(费)(电)(视)(行)(业)(的)(价)(值)(链)(主)(要)(有)(三)(部)(分)(组)(成)(:
1.内)(容)(制)(作)(者)(。
2.内)(容)(整)(合)(者)(。
3.内)(容)(分)(发)(者)(。
内)(容)(制)(作)(者)((ContentCreators)
整)(个)(价)(值)(链)(的)(初)(始)(点)(在)(内)(容)(制)(作)(者)(。内)(容)(制)(作)(者)(指)(的)(是)(制)(作)(节)(目)(内)(容)(的)(企)(业)(,这)(些)(内)(容)(一)(般)(包)(括)(电)(影)(,电)(视)(剧)(,真)(人)(秀)(节)(目)(,娱)(乐)(节)(目)(等)(内)(容)(。国)(内)(常)(看)(到)(的)(《爸)(爸)(去)(哪)(》,《中)(国)(好)(声)(音)(》其)(实)(都)(是)(属)(于)(被)(制)(作)(出)(来)(的)(节)(目)(。在)(美)(国)(这)(样)(的)(内)(容)(生)(产)(商)(有)(美)(国)(有)(六)(大)(电)(影)(制)(作)(和)(发)(行)(公)(司)(,华)(纳)(兄)(弟)(、派)(拉)(蒙)(、20世)(纪)(福)(克)(斯)(、迪)(斯)(尼)(影)(业)(、索)(尼)(影)(业)(和)(环)(球)(影)(业)(;一)(起)(其)(他)(一)(些)(独)(立)(制)(片)(商)(比)(如)(LionsGate(狮)(们)(娱)(乐)(,经)(典)(代)(表)(作)(是)(饥)(饿)(游)(戏)()。
值)(得)(一)(提)(的)(是)(,美)(国)(六)(大)(电)(影)(制)(作)(公)(司)(旗)(下)(也)(都)(有)(电)(视)(剧)(制)(作)(部)(门)(。
除)(了)(专)(业)(制)(片)(公)(司)(的)(电)(视)(剧)(外)(,广)(播)(电)(视)(网)(、地)(方)(电)(视)(台)(和)(有)(线)(电)(视)(频)(道)(也)(直)(接)(参)(与)(部)(分)(电)(视)(节)(目)(的)(制)(作)(。有)(线)(电)(视)(频)(道)(兴)(起)(之)(前)(,广)(播)(电)(视)(网)(是)(市)(场)(上)(主)(要)(的)(电)(视)(节)(目)(购)(买)(者)(,地)(方)(电)(视)(台)(的)(节)(目)(主)(要)(来)(自)(广)(播)(电)(视)(网)(而)(非)(专)(业)(制)(片)(公)(司)(。广)(播)(电)(视)(网)(自)(己)(制)(作)(的)(节)(目)(包)(括)(新)(闻)(、体)(育)(以)(及)(部)(分)(娱)(乐)(节)(目)(,而)(地)(方)(电)(视)(台)(除)(了)(播)(出)(广)(播)(电)(视)(网)(提)(供)(的)(节)(目)(外)(,还)(需)(要)(制)(作)(地)(方)(新)(闻)(、地)(方)(体)(育)(赛)(事)(以)(及)(其)(他)(本)(地)(人)(感)(兴)(趣)(的)(内)(容)(。
另)(外)(近)(几)(年)(新)(兴)(的)(以)(Netflix为)(首)(的)(流)(媒)(体)(也)(进)(入)(了)(内)(容)(制)(作)(行)(业)(,其)(中)(制)(作)(的)(最)(著)(名)(的)(电)(视)(剧)(是)(《纸)(牌)(屋)(》。
内)(容)(整)(合)(者)((Aggregators)
对)(于)(内)(容)(制)(作)(商)(来)(说)(,内)(容)(整)(合)(者)((也)(叫)(作)(发)(行)(渠)(道)()是)(内)(容)(变)(现)(的)(渠)(道)(,它)(们)(是)(电)(视)(节)(目)(的)(直)(接)(购)(买)(者)(,也)(是)(电)(视)(节)(目)(的)(发)(行)(渠)(道)(商)(。电)(视)(节)(目)(的)(发)(行)(渠)(道)(就)(是)(地)(面)(电)(视)(台)(的)(广)(播)(电)(视)(频)(道)(,或)(者)(是)(有)(线)(电)(视)(频)(道)(。
对)(于)(电)(视)(观)(众)(来)(说)(,内)(容)(整)(合)(者)(把)(一)(个)(个)(单)(独)(的)(电)(视)(节)(目)(按)(照)(播)(出)(时)(间)(编)(排)(起)(来)(,整)(合)(成)(电)(视)(频)(道)(供)(人)(们)(观)(看)(。观)(众)(最)(终)(能)(收)(看)(的)(电)(视)(频)(道)(只)(有)(两)(类)(,一)(类)(是)(有)(线)(电)(视)(频)(道)(,一)(类)(是)(广)(播)(电)(视)(频)(道)((广)(播)(电)(视)(网)(+地)(方)(电)(视)(台)()。
在)(电)(视)(产)(业)(发)(展)(早)(期)(,美)(国)(电)(视)(节)(目)(的)(发)(行)(渠)(道)(只)(有)(广)(播)(电)(视)(网)(和)(地)(方)(电)(视)(台)(,其)(中)(广)(播)(电)(视)(网)(是)(最)(主)(要)(的)(买)(家)(;20世)(纪)(80年)(代)(以)(来)(,有)(线)(电)(视)(频)(道)(兴)(起)(,为)(电)(视)(节)(目)(提)(供)(了)(一)(个)(新)(的)(发)(行)(渠)(道)(。广)(播)(电)(视)(网)(、地)(方)(电)(视)(台)(和)(有)(线)(电)(视)(频)(道)(,虽)(然)(三)(者)(也)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(从)(事)(内)(容)(制)(作)(,但)(更)(主)(要)(是)(作)(为)(一)(个)(内)(容)(整)(合)(者)(而)(存)(在)(的)(。
为)(了)(方)(便)(大)(家)(理)(解)(,这)(里)(举)(一)(个)(大)(家)(知)(道)(的)(例)(子)(。我)(们)(看)(到)(的)(芒)(果)(频)(道)(实)(际)(上)(就)(是)(一)(个)(整)(合)(者)(,这)(个)(频)(道)(上)(有)(很)(多)(不)(同)(的)(内)(容)(,比)(如)(说)(《天)(天)(向)(上)(》,《我)(是)(歌)(手)(》等)(。对)(芒)(果)(卫)(视)(而)(言)(,它)(即)(是)(内)(容)(制)(作)(者)(制)(作)(了)(《天)(天)(向)(上)(》,又)(是)(内)(容)(整)(合)(者)(,把)(不)(同)(的)(节)(目)(内)(容)(以)(整)(合)(到)(自)(己)(的)(芒)(果)(卫)(视)(上)(。
信)(号)(传)(输)(商)((Distributors)
在)(内)(容)(制)(作)(商)(和)(内)(容)(整)(合)(者)(之)(后)(,还)(需)(要)(一)(环)(才)(能)(真)(正)(使)(观)(众)(收)(看)(到)(电)(视)(节)(目)(,这)(就)(是)(电)(视)(信)(号)(的)(传)(输)(商)((Distributors)。电)(视)(信)(号)(传)(输)(商)(做)(的)(是)(纯)(技)(术)(层)(面)(的)(东)(西)(,它)(的)(任)(务)(是)(在)(全)(国)(范)(围)(内)(铺)(设)(传)(输)(网)(络)(,或)(者)(是)(无)(形)(的)(,或)(者)(是)(有)(形)(的)(,通)(过)(这)(些)(传)(输)(网)(络)(,使)(广)(播)(电)(视)(频)(道)(或)(有)(线)(电)(视)(频)(道)(的)(信)(号)(被)(每)(个)(家)(庭)(的)(电)(视)(终)(端)(接)(收)(到)(。美)(国)(的)(电)(视)(信)(号)(传)(输)(网)(络)(分)(为)(两)(大)(体)(系)(,一)(是)(地)(面)(广)(播)(体)(系)(,一)(类)(是)(有)(线)(电)(视)(网)(络)(传)(播)(体)(系)(。
对)(国)(人)(来)(讲)(,大)(多)(数)(家)(庭)(现)(在)(体)(验)(的)(就)(是)(有)(线)(电)(视)(网)(络)(传)(播)(体)(系)(。在)(美)(国)(,这)(种)(提)(供)(有)(线)(电)(视)(信)(号)(传)(输)(商)(叫)(做)(多)(频)(道)(节)(目)(视)(频)(分)(发)(商)((MVPDs)。
从)(价)(值)(链)(的)(角)(度)(来)(看)(,Discover是)(个)(什)(么)(样)(的)(公)(司)(呢)(?
其)(实)(这)(个)(公)(司)(本)(质)(上)(就)(是)(利)(用)(卫)(星)(技)(术)(,把)(价)(值)(链)(的)(上)(游)(到)(下)(游)(全)(部)(做)(了)(。
首)(先)(它)(是)(一)(个)(内)(容)(生)(产)(者)(,它)(生)(产)(纪)(录)(片)(、探)(险)(节)(目)(等)(等)(。其)(次)(它)(是)(内)(容)(整)(合)(者)(,把)(内)(容)(整)(合)(到)(自)(己)(的)(探)(索)(频)(道)(上)(。最)(后)(,它)(也)(是)(半)(个)(信)(号)(输)(送)(商)(,在)(除)(了)(美)(国)(地)(区)(之)(外)(的)(地)(方)(,它)(通)(过)(卫)(星)(技)(术)(把)(信)(号)(输)(送)(到)(订)(阅)(探)(索)(频)(道)(的)(家)(庭)(里)((在)(美)(国)(的)(业)(务)(主)(要)(通)(过)(电)(缆)(输)(送)()。
那)(么)(,在)(近)(5年)(里)(,整)(个)(付)(费)(电)(视)(行)(业)(发)(生)(了)(什)(么)(变)(化)(呢)(?这)(些)(变)(化)(又)(是)(怎)(么)(影)(响)(Discover的)(?
对)(美)(国)(的)(有)(线)(电)(视)(公)(司)(来)(讲)(,现)(在)(正)(面)(临)(着)(两)(个)(趋)(势)(:
CordCutting(剪)(线)()
CordCutting指)(的)(就)(是)(越)(来)(越)(多)(人)(会)(取)(消)(掉)(有)(线)(电)(视)(订)(阅)(服)(务)(,转)(而)(投)(向)(Netflix这)(样)(的)(流)(媒)(体)(公)(司)(,在)(这)(一)(趋)(势)(中)(,首)(当)(其)(冲)(的)(是)(有)(线)(电)(视)(运)(营)(商)(。不)(过)(这)(也)(不)(意)(味)(着)(有)(线)(电)(视)(运)(营)(商)(很)(快)(就)(会)(死)(去)(,因)(为)(有)(线)(电)(视)(运)(营)(商)(也)(有)(宽)(带)(业)(务)(。大)(家)(取)(消)(有)(线)(电)(视)(订)(阅)(服)(务)(后)(,对)(宽)(带)(流)(量)(的)(使)(用)(大)(幅)(度)(提)(高)(,大)(概)(率)(会)(刺)(激)(有)(线)(电)(视)(运)(营)(商)(宽)(带)(业)(务)(,而)(宽)(带)(业)(务)(的)(毛)(利)(润)(率)(很)(高)(。在)(未)(来)(可)(见)(的)(很)(长)(一)(段)(时)(间)(内)(,电)(缆)(应)(该)(还)(是)(宽)(带)(的)(主)(要)(搭)(载)(形)(式)(,DSL信)(号)(太)(差)(,光)(纤)(太)(贵)(,目)(前)(只)(有)(电)(缆)(是)(最)(优)(解)(。
之)(所)(以)(会)(出)(现)(“剪)(线)(”这)(个)(趋)(势)(,主)(要)(是)(因)(为)(美)(国)(的)(有)(线)(电)(视)(费)(用)(太)(贵)(了)(,平)(均)(在)(70美)(金)(一)(个)(月)(,而)(Netflix每)(个)(月)(的)(会)(员)(费)(才)(只)(要)(10美)(金)(,这)(就)(导)(致)(很)(多)(原)(本)(就)(不)(怎)(么)(看)(电)(视)(的)(90后)(00后)(开)(始)(取)(消)(有)(线)(电)(视)(费)(用)(,转)(而)(订)(阅)(Netflix。
在)(有)(线)(电)(视)(时)(代)(,信)(号)(输)(送)(商)(是)(个)(典)(型)(的)(垄)(断)(企)(业)(。无)(论)(是)(卫)(星)(电)(视)(运)(营)(商)(还)(是)(有)(线)(电)(视)(运)(营)(商)(都)(是)(垄)(断)(企)(业)(。目)(前)(美)(国)(主)(要)(的)(有)(线)(电)(视)(运)(营)(商)(仅)(仅)(只)(有)(6家)(:Comcast,TimeWarnerCable,CoxCommunication,Charter,CablevisionSystem和)(BrightHouseNetworks。这)(六)(家)(加)(在)(一)(起)(占)(据)(整)(个)(有)(线)(电)(视)(行)(业)(的)(85%市)(场)(份)(额)(。
卫)(星)(电)(视)(运)(营)(商)(更)(少)(的)(可)(怜)(,仅)(仅)(只)(有)(两)(家)(:DirectTV和)(Dish。其)(中)(DirectTV更)(是)(占)(据)(了)(整)(个)(卫)(星)(电)(视)(运)(营)(商)(60%的)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,整)(个)(MVPD里)(22%的)(市)(场)(份)(额)(。
另)(外)(,信)(号)(输)(送)(上)(有)(着)(非)(常)(高)(的)(进)(入)(门)(槛)(。以)(有)(线)(电)(视)(运)(营)(商)(为)(例)(,你)(要)(成)(立)(一)(个)(新)(的)(企)(业)(进)(入)(这)(个)(行)(业)(就)(要)(搭)(建)(起)(自)(己)(的)(电)(缆)(网)(络)(,因)(此)(你)(要)(把)(城)(市)(的)(街)(道)(给)(挖)(开)(然)(后)(埋)(下)(去)(自)(己)(的)(电)(缆)(,这)(是)(数)(以)(十)(亿)(美)(金)(计)(的)(成)(本)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,由)(于)(转)(换)(成)(本)(高)(,你)(还)(要)(面)(临)(如)(何)(挖)(走)(别)(人)(客)(户)(的)(难)(题)(。正)(是)(这)(种)(高)(门)(槛)(导)(致)(了)(行)(业)(竞)(争)(并)(不)(激)(烈)(,因)(此)(整)(个)(行)(业)(的)(运)(营)(利)(润)(率)((EBITDAmargin)很)(高)(,有)(大)(概)(35%左)(右)(。
从)(企)(业)(的)(角)(度)(来)(讲)(,垄)(断)(意)(味)(着)(超)(额)(收)(益)(,从)(用)(户)(的)(角)(度)(来)(讲)(,垄)(断)(意)(味)(着)(支)(出)(提)(高)(,无)(替)(代)(品)(。
毫)(无)(悬)(念)(,美)(国)(的)(有)(线)(电)(视)(费)(用)(是)(非)(常)(昂)(贵)(的)(。
这)(张)(图)(是)(从)(1998年)(到)(2013年)(,美)(国)(有)(线)(电)(视)(费)(用)(的)(增)(长)(率)(和)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(的)(关)(系)(。你)(会)(发)(现)(有)(线)(电)(视)(费)(用)(在)(2013年)(达)(到)(了)(64.41美)(金)(每)(月)(,其)(增)(速)(远)(远)(大)(于)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)((灰)(色)(地)(带)(显)(示)()。
上)(图)(是)(从)(1995年)(到)(2015年)(,美)(国)(有)(线)(电)(视)(费)(用)(和)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(之)(间)(的)(关)(系)(,橘)(黄)(色)(线)(是)(有)(线)(电)(视)(费)(用)(增)(速)(,灰)(色)(线)(是)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(。
截)(止)(2015年)(,美)(国)(有)(线)(电)(视)(平)(均)(费)(用)(是)(71.24美)(金)(一)(个)(月)(。
Unbundling(去)(捆)(绑)()
去)(捆)(绑)(,也)(是)(有)(线)(电)(视)(行)(业)(最)(大)(的)(趋)(势)(之)(一)(。如)(果)(你)(打)(开)(迪)(士)(尼)(的)(走)(势)(图)(,你)(会)(发)(现)(迪)(士)(尼)(的)(PE只)(有)(17倍)((标)(普)(500平)(均)(22倍)(左)(右)(),基)(本)(上)(中)(间)(5倍)(的)(差)(值)(都)(是)(给)(ESPN这)(个)(隐)(患)(。ESPN可)(以)(是)(公)(认)(的)(捆)(绑)(销)(售)(的)(最)(大)(受)(益)(者)(。不)(管)(你)(喜)(不)(喜)(欢)(看)(体)(育)(频)(道)(,你)(的)(有)(线)(电)(视)(套)(餐)(里)(一)(定)(都)(会)(有)(ESPN(内)(容)(整)(合)(者)(就)(是)(这)(么)(霸)(道)(,你)(不)(捆)(绑)(在)(一)(起)(,就)(不)(给)(你)(提)(供)(任)(何)(ESPN的)(频)(道)(,这)(样)(喜)(欢)(体)(育)(的)(用)(户)(就)(会)(换)(运)(营)(商)(),而)(且)(是)(6-8美)(金)(一)(个)(月)(。因)(此)(很)(多)(电)(视)(信)(号)(输)(送)(商)((MVPDs)是)(很)(希)(望)(能)(去)(捆)(绑)(的)(,因)(为)(这)(样)(有)(线)(电)(视)(费)(用)(根)(据)(顾)(客)(需)(求)(而)(调)(整)(,就)(可)(以)(大)(幅)(度)(下)(降)(。但)(是)(迪)(士)(尼)(是)(第)(一)(个)(跳)(出)(来)(不)(同)(意)(去)(捆)(绑)(的)(。不)(管)(怎)(么)(样)(,去)(捆)(绑)(已)(经)(是)(付)(费)(电)(视)(行)(业)(的)(趋)(势)(了)(。
对)(Discover而)(言)(,如)(果)(大)(家)(都)(不)(观)(看)(电)(视)(了)(,那)(么)(它)(收)(到)(的)(有)(线)(电)(视)(分)(成)(就)(会)(下)(降)(,这)(就)(是)(市)(场)(担)(心)(的)(主)(要)(地)(方)(。
但)(是)(实)(际)(上)(,市)(场)(忽)(略)(了)(一)(个)(很)(核)(心)(的)(东)(西)(:Discover其)(实)(也)(是)(一)(个)(内)(容)(生)(产)(者)(。
上)(面)(我)(们)(介)(绍)(过)(了)(,探)(索)(频)(道)(是)(一)(个)(坐)(拥)(数)(十)(个)(频)(道)(,遍)(及)(全)(球)(二)(百)(多)(个)(市)(场)(,用)(户)(数)(达)(到)(30亿)(的)(全)(球)(性)(品)(牌)(。一)(个)(全)(球)(性)(的)(内)(容)(供)(应)(体)(系)(可)(以)(提)(供)(多)(种)(收)(入)(来)(源)(,这)(就)(是)(使)(DCI和)(其)(他)(内)(容)(提)(供)(商)(区)(分)(开)(来)(的)(关)(键)(。
在)(流)(媒)(体)(时)(代)(,互)(联)(网)(改)(变)(其)(实)(只)(是)(内)(容)(的)(传)(播)(方)(式)(和)(观)(看)(习)(惯)(而)(已)(。用)(户)(对)(内)(容)(的)(需)(求)(其)(实)(变)(得)(更)(大)(了)(,因)(此)(这)(个)(时)(代)(依)(旧)(是)(内)(容)(为)(王)(。优)(质)(的)(内)(容)(不)(会)(被)(淘)(汰)(。以)(目)(前)(低)(双)(位)(数)(自)(由)(现)(金)(流)(产)(出)(的)(节)(奏)(,我)(有)(理)(由)(认)(为)(DCI的)(股)(票)(因)(为)(市)(场)(情)(绪)(被)(严)(重)(卖)(空)(了)(。
%\S)(??iscover极)(具)(竞)(争)(优)(势)(的)(商)(业)(模)(式)(
(来)(源)(:DCI11月)(投)(资)(者)(大)(会)(PPT)
与)(其)(他)(市)(场)(里)(竞)(争)(对)(手)(不)(同)(的)(是)(,Discover是)(优)(质)(的)(内)(容)(生)(产)(商)(。
也)(就)(是)(说)(公)(司)(拥)(有)(他)(们)(播)(出)(的)(节)(目)(的)(几)(乎)(所)(有)(版)(权)(。这)(一)(点)(绝)(对)(是)(极)(具)(竞)(争)(力)(的)(优)(势)(,因)(为)(这)(就)(意)(味)(着)(他)(们)(在)(内)(容)(发)(布)(方)(面)(有)(着)(极)(大)(的)(自)(由)(,比)(那)(些)(“云)(上)(的)(”流)(媒)(体)(公)(司)(强)(太)(多)(了)(。不)(过)(传)(统)(的)(内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(要)(面)(对)(的)(压)(力)(主)(要)(来)(自)(那)(些)(“不)(走)(寻)(常)(路)(”的)(频)(道)(,比)(如)(Netflix和)(HBOGo之)(类)(的)(,同)(时)(他)(们)(跟)(那)(些)(新)(兴)(的)(频)(道)(相)(比)(在)(网)(络)(上)(也)(略)(逊)(一)(筹)((这)(样)(就)(不)(利)(于)(将)(内)(容)(放)(在)(网)(上)(捆)(绑)(销)(售)(吸)(引)(人)(们)(订)(阅)(了)()。但)(是)(discover是)(传)(统)(供)(应)(商)(里)(最)(独)(特)(也)(最)(有)(品)(牌)(效)(应)(的)(标)(的)(了)(。
至)(少)(相)(对)(而)(言)(,Discover在)(网)(络)(上)(的)(排)(名)(和)(订)(阅)(用)(户)(数)(足)(以)(让)(他)(们)(和)(大)(趋)(势)(搏)(一)(搏)(,顺)(便)(给)(发)(行)(商)(提)(供)(一)(点)(品)(牌)(价)(值)(。大)(的)(发)(行)(商)(包)(括)(时)(代)(华)(纳)(和)(Verizon在)(今)(时)(今)(日)(的)(大)(环)(境)(下)(也)(不)(得)(不)(被)(迫)(和)(“剪)(线)(派)(”竞)(争)(。他)(们)(选)(择)(精)(简)(频)(道)(包)(装)(从)(而)(减)(少)(订)(阅)(频)(道)(的)(消)(费)(者)(的)(月)(费)(,同)(时)(慢)(慢)(向)(千)(禧)(一)(代)(更)(喜)(欢)(的)(“拉)(菜)(单)(”模)(式)(转)(型)(的)(方)(式)(来)(回)(击)(。随)(着)(这)(种)(现)(象)(的)(出)(现)(,相)(信)(我)(们)(肯)(定)(很)(快)(就)(会)(看)(到)(发)(行)(商)(在)(每)(个)(消)(费)(者)(身)(上)(取)(得)(的)(总)(体)(收)(入)(下)(滑)(,处)(在)(弱)(势)(的)(内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(会)(更)(加)(被)(边)(缘)(化)(。
这)(样)(的)(话)(这)(个)(市)(场)(就)(只)(剩)(下)(了)(如)(AMC、Discovery、迪)(士)(尼)(等)(寡)(头)(玩)(家)(了)(。目)(前)(DCI的)(市)(场)(占)(有)(率)(是)(12%,但)(是)(只)(占)(全)(部)(有)(线)(电)(视)(行)(业)(净)(利)(润)(的)(5%。低)(价)(再)(加)(上)(高)(质)(量)(的)(内)(容)(才)(是)(在)(市)(场)(中)(屹)(立)(不)(倒)(的)(组)(合)(拳)(。
国)(际)(频)(道)(是)(增)(长)(的)(引)(擎)(
在)(过)(去)(五)(年)(里)(,当)(然)(去)(年)(例)(外)(啊)(,从)(2011年)(开)(始)(就)(以)(21%的)(复)(合)(增)(长)(率)(增)(长)(着)(。来)(自)(国)(际)(频)(道)(的)(收)(入)(逐)(渐)(成)(为)(总)(收)(入)(的)(主)(体)(。在)(过)(去)(的)(三)(个)(月)(里)(,市)(场)(份)(额)(下)(降)(超)(过)(了)(15%,我)(们)(分)(析)(认)(为)(这)(可)(能)(与)(国)(际)(部)(分)(的)(放)(缓)(有)(关)(。DCI在)(国)(际)(上)(几)(乎)(遍)(布)(所)(有)(大)(洲)(,43%来)(自)(欧)(洲)(,20%来)(自)(南)(美)(洲)(,还)(有)(8%来)(自)(亚)(太)(地)(区)(。
(来)(源)(:DCI11月)(投)(资)(者)(大)(会)(PPT)
国)(际)(业)(务)(未)(来)(依)(旧)(是)(增)(长)(的)(主)(要)(驱)(动)(力)(,国)(际)(市)(场)(也)(还)(有)(很)(大)(的)(空)(间)(去)(发)(展)(。国)(际)(网)(络)(那)(边)(的)(收)(入)(在)(2015年)(减)(少)(到)(31亿)(比)(上)(年)(下)(降)(了)(2%,调)(整)(后)(的)(OIBDA减)(少)(到)(9610万)(比)(上)(年)(下)(降)(了)(15%。这)(种)(幅)(度)(与)(之)(前)(2014年)(增)(长)(了)(28%的)(收)(入)(和)(18%的)(OIBDA也)(不)(相)(上)(下)(了)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(正)(是)(这)(种)(跌)(幅)(才)(造)(就)(了)(目)(前)(的)(股)(价)((以)(及)(来)(自)(美)(国)(流)(媒)(体)(的)(压)(力)()。
但)(是)(在)(这)(里)(我)(们)(希)(望)(你)(们)(注)(意)(一)(下)(以)(下)(这)(三)(点)(。
1.去)(年)(大)(幅)(的)(收)(入)(缩)(水)(主)(要)(原)(因)(是)(国)(外)(汇)(率)(的)(问)(题)(。这)(部)(分)(去)(年)(遭)(受)(的)(巨)(大)(的)(阻)(力)(主)(要)(是)(因)(为)(美)(元)(的)(上)(行)(,尤)(其)(是)(跟)(占)(收)(入)(20%的)(拉)(美)(地)(区)(的)(货)(币)(相)(比)(。如)(果)(单)(拎)(出)(来)(第)(四)(季)(度)(来)(看)(,光)(汇)(率)(的)(浮)(动)(就)(使)(收)(入)(减)(少)(了)(13%,OIBDA减)(少)(了)(17%,相)(对)(应)(的)(,全)(年)(的)(收)(入)(减)(少)(了)(14%,OIBDA减)(少)(了)(16%。
2.公)(布)(的)(结)(果)(中)(还)(包)(括)(了)(最)(近)(出)(让)(的)(SBS广)(播)(业)(务)(,这)(就)(使)(得)(报)(表)(更)(难)(看)(了)(。
3.过)(去)(几)(年)(在)(内)(容)(方)(面)(的)(投)(资)(,尤)(其)(是)(欧)(洲)(部)(分)(,更)(加)(剧)(了)(利)(润)(的)(下)(滑)(。这)(个)(部)(分)(的)(投)(资)(还)(占)(了)(挺)(大)(头)(的)(,而)(且)(投)(资)(的)(阶)(段)(马)(上)(就)(接)(近)(尾)(声)(了)(,一)(旦)(完)(成)(,我)(们)(相)(信)(在)(国)(际)(业)(务)(方)(面)(未)(来)(两)(年)(内)(是)(可)(以)(看)(得)(到)(订)(阅)(用)(户)(的)(增)(长)(和)(利)(润)(的)(增)(加)(的)(。同)(时)(在)(利)(润)(方)(面)(近)(期)(是)(有)(可)(能)(重)(新)(回)(到)(40%的)(门)(槛)(的)(,而)(且)(随)(着)(未)(来)(几)(年)(订)(阅)(用)(户)(的)(增)(加)(和)(调)(整)(固)(定)(资)(产)(基)(础)(,是)(有)(可)(能)(达)(到)(44%-45%的)(。除)(去)(这)(些)(方)(面)(的)(影)(响)(,全)(年)(的)(收)(入)(其)(实)(是)(高)(单)(位)(数)(的)(增)(长)(,比)(现)(在)(报)(表)(里)(的)(好)(太)(多)(了)(。
购)(买)(力)(逐)(渐)(转)(向)(内)(容)(
究)(竟)(谁)(在)(行)(业)(里)(占)(据)(主)(导)(地)(位)(这)(个)(议)(题)(,内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(和)(发)(行)(商)(争)(了)(有)(好)(几)(十)(年)(。早)(期)(发)(行)(商)(因)(为)(把)(持)(着)(各)(种)(捆)(绑)(包)(而)(占)(尽)(了)(优)(势)(,但)(是)(消)(费)(者)(几)(乎)(没)(有)(什)(么)(选)(择)(。在)(上)(世)(纪)(90年)(代)(发)(行)(商)(们)(不)(断)(地)(提)(价)(,但)(依)(旧)(是)(市)(场)(上)(的)(热)(门)(标)(的)(,因)(为)(几)(乎)(所)(有)(人)(都)(认)(为)(美)(国)(在)(向)(宽)(频)(时)(代)(转)(型)(的)(阶)(段)(头)(一)(个)(受)(惠)(的)(就)(是)(这)(些)(发)(行)(商)(们)(。因)(此)(,发)(行)(商)(们)(就)(可)(以)(在)(低)(价)(高)(质)(量)(之)(间)(不)(断)(平)(衡)(不)(断)(压)(榨)(内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(,那)(些)(内)(容)(供)(应)(公)(司)(就)(只)(能)(依)(赖)(这)(些)(发)(行)(商)(来)(谋)(出)(路)(,把)(内)(容)(提)(供)(给)(观)(众)(。
到)(了)(21世)(纪)(,这)(种)(互)(相)(依)(存)(的)(关)(系)(就)(使)(两)(个)(不)(同)(的)(行)(业)(产)(生)(了)(协)(同)(效)(应)(。内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(需)(要)(订)(阅)(用)(户)(的)(订)(阅)(费)(来)(给)(自)(己)(打)(广)(告)(,同)(时)(发)(行)(商)(又)(需)(要)(高)(质)(量)(的)(内)(容)(提)(供)(给)(观)(众)(。但)(是)(发)(行)(商)(变)(得)(越)(来)(越)(贪)(婪)(,在)(费)(用)(分)(成)(上)(想)(鲸)(吞)(大)(部)(分)(收)(入)(,这)(就)(在)(双)(方)(之)(间)(产)(生)(了)(不)(可)(调)(和)(的)(矛)(盾)(。被)(惹)(恼)(了)(的)(内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(们)(就)(撤)(出)(了)(之)(前)(入)(驻)(的)(频)(道)(,这)(样)(又)(进)(一)(步)(让)(观)(众)(怨)(声)(载)(道)(。但)(是)(观)(众)(可)(不)(管)(你)(是)(发)(行)(商)(还)(是)(供)(应)(商)(,反)(正)(我)(把)(钱)(给)(谁)(我)(就)(骂)(谁)(,所)(以)(,内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(的)(撤)(出)(挨)(骂)(的)(反)(而)(是)(发)(行)(商)(。这)(下)(,内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(们)(好)(像)(嗅)(到)(了)(商)(机)(。
这)(个)(商)(机)(现)(在)(在)(场)(上)(依)(旧)(被)(大)(家)(抢)(得)(不)(亦)(乐)(乎)(,虽)(然)(最)(近)(钟)(摆)(由)(于)(市)(场)(情)(绪)(又)(开)(始)(向)(发)(行)(商)((也)(就)(是)(现)(在)(所)(说)(的)(流)(媒)(体)()和)(互)(联)(网)(媒)(体)(倾)(斜)(了)(,但)(是)(我)(们)(还)(是)(乐)(观)(的)(坚)(信)(:有)(内)(容)(,才)(有)(一)(切)(。就)(比)(如)(Discover。
不)(过)(话)(又)(说)(回)(来)(,国)(际)(市)(场)(上)(这)(一)(行)(的)(情)(况)(跟)(美)(国)(也)(确)(实)(不)(大)(一)(样)(。下)(面)(那)(张)(PPT显)(示)(,国)(际)(上)(付)(费)(电)(视)(的)(发)(展)(要)(落)(后)(美)(国)(差)(不)(多)(二)(十)(年)(。很)(多)(内)(容)(方)(面)(的)(产)(业)(过)(于)(碎)(片)(化)(,就)(很)(像)(产)(业)(整)(合)(之)(前)(90年)(代)(的)(美)(国)(。但)(是)(欧)(洲)(市)(场)(由)(于)(竞)(争)(流)(动)(不)(起)(来)(科)(技)(发)(展)(一)(直)(是)(处)(在)(资)(金)(严)(重)(不)(足)(的)(状)(态)(下)(,因)(此)(内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(们)(投)(入)(的)(资)(金)(和)(美)(国)(根)(本)(没)(法)(比)(,这)(样)(就)(造)(就)(了)(一)(个)(严)(重)(缺)(乏)(高)(质)(量)(内)(容)(的)(供)(应)(商)(和)(少)(数)(发)(行)(商)(的)(市)(场)(。
我)(们)(认)(为)(随)(着)(美)(国)(的)(内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(为)(了)(打)(败)(发)(行)(商)(视)(野)(逐)(渐)(向)(全)(球)(发)(展)(,内)(容)(提)(供)(商)(在)(国)(际)(市)(场)(上)(的)(整)(合)(马)(上)(就)(会)(蔓)(延)(开)(来)(。当)(他)(们)(把)(收)(购)(的)(频)(道)(和)(自)(己)(之)(前)(的)(资)(产)(结)(合)(起)(来)(捆)(绑)(成)(一)(个)(巨)(大)(的)(核)(心)(资)(产)(的)(时)(候)(,内)(容)(提)(供)(商)(的)(时)(代)(就)(来)(了)(。
(来)(源)(:DCI11月)(投)(资)(者)(大)(会)(PPT)
美)(国)(市)(场)(的)(威)(胁)(是)(?
对)(于)(投)(资)(者)(来)(说)(避)(开)(一)(只)(股)(票)(最)(主)(要)(的)(原)(因)(就)(是)(对)(于)(美)(国)(市)(场)(的)(威)(胁)(,毕)(竟)(要)(考)(虑)(到)(科)(技)(方)(面)(的)(影)(响)(。
其)(一)(,美)(国)(的)(广)(告)(市)(场)(还)(在)(继)(续)(从)(电)(视)(向)(线)(上)(转)(移)(,从)(长)(远)(来)(看)(这)(一)(点)(就)(很)(让)(投)(资)(者)(们)(担)(心)(。大)(部)(分)(媒)(体)(公)(司)(都)(提)(到)(过)(这)(个)(问)(题)(,但)(是)(当)(你)(把)(跨)(设)(备)(观)(看)(节)(目)(这)(点)(作)(为)(因)(素)(带)(入)(的)(话)(就)(发)(现)(没)(有)(什)(么)(确)(切)(的)(数)(据)(可)(以)(证)(明)(。比)(如)(说)(啊)(,我)(们)(有)(个)(观)(众)(在)(ipad上)(通)(过)(Discovery的)(一)(个)(频)(道)(的)(在)(线)(流)(媒)(体)(网)(站)(来)(看)(秀)(,这)(种)(情)(况)(是)(不)(会)(被)(评)(级)(机)(构)(纳)(入)(考)(虑)(范)(围)(的)(,但)(是)(我)(们)(现)(在)(不)(都)(是)(这)(样)(娱)(乐)(的)(吗)(?
其)(二)(,观)(众)(对)(于)(喜)(爱)(的)(剧)(是)(不)(想)(被)(插)(播)(广)(告)(的)(。这)(一)(点)(最)(受)(益)(就)(是)(在)(线)(网)(络)(频)(道)(了)(,比)(如)(Hulu和)(Netflix。这)(其)(实)(才)(是)(这)(一)(行)(里)(对)(广)(告)(的)(最)(大)(威)(胁)(。但)(是)(失)(去)(了)(广)(告)(推)(广)(费)(,内)(容)(提)(供)(商)(就)(不)(能)(烧)(钱)(制)(作)(高)(质)(量)(的)(内)(容)(了)(呀)(。换)(句)(话)(说)(,内)(容)(制)(作)(商)(总)(要)(吃)(饭)(的)(,要)(吃)(饭)(就)(要)(钱)(。要)(么)(就)(是)(跟)(广)(告)(商)(要)(钱)(要)(么)(就)(是)(跟)(订)(阅)(用)(户)(要)(钱)(。消)(费)(者)(要)(是)(不)(愿)(意)(给)(钱)(,不)(管)(是)(不)(是)(心)(甘)(情)(愿)(,那)(就)(必)(须)(接)(受)(在)(剧)(里)(插)(广)(告)(;不)(接)(受)(的)(话)(就)(去)(隔)(壁)(给)(发)(行)(商)(交)(钱)(吧)(。不)(管)(消)(费)(者)(选)(择)(哪)(一)(种)(,内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(总)(会)(拿)(钱)(的)(。因)(此)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(行)(业)(转)(型)(这)(种)(说)(法)(虽)(然)(没)(错)(但)(是)(现)(在)(被)(说)(得)(太)(过)(夸)(张)(,只)(要)(内)(容)(供)(应)(商)(愿)(意)(继)(续)(制)(作)(好)(的)(内)(容)(,消)(费)(者)(就)(不)(得)(不)(接)(受)(现)(状)(。
%\W)(摹)(⒐乐)(袋)(br />考)(虑)(到)(公)(司)(的)(商)(业)(模)(式)(,目)(前)(以)(Discovery11倍)(的)(估)(值)(还)(是)(满)(吸)(引)(人)(的)(。我)(们)(相)(信)(在)(这)(个)(时)(间)(点)(,考)(虑)(到)(风)(险)(,在)(未)(来)(三)(年)(内)(每)(年)(我)(们)(的)(预)(期)(是)(能)(产)(生)(低)(双)(位)(数)(的)(自)(由)(现)(金)(流)(。根)(据)(美)(国)(市)(场)(低)(至)(中)(单)(位)(数)(的)(增)(速)(和)(国)(际)(市)(场)(低)(双)(位)(数)(的)(增)(速)(来)(看)(,预)(期)(还)(算)(是)(合)(理)(。
即)(便)(综)(合)(考)(虑)(货)(币)(的)(影)(响)(,自)(由)(现)(金)(流)(也)(可)(以)(达)(到)(11.3亿)(。以)(12%的)(复)(合)(增)(长)(率)((一)(个)(小)(目)(标)()来)(看)(,到)(2018年)(自)(由)(现)(金)(流)(可)(以)(达)(到)(接)(近)(16.5个)(亿)(。这)(相)(当)(于)(产)(生)(了)(现)(在)(市)(值)(的)(18.5%的)(自)(由)(现)(金)(流)(啊)(。不)(仅)(能)(产)(生)(这)(么)(多)(的)(自)(由)(现)(流)(,公)(司)(也)(将)(回)(购)(金)(额)(提)(高)(到)(20亿)(,占)(了)(现)(在)(流)(通)(股)(本)(的)(13%。这)(样)(的)(话)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(公)(司)(每)(股)(能)(产)(生)(3.5美)(金)(的)(自)(由)(现)(金)(流)(。因)(此)(,对)(应)(的)(P/FCF只)(有)(6.1倍)(。
下)(表)(是)(在)(OIBDA的)(基)(础)(上)(给)(出)(的)(估)(值)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(未)(来)(OIBDA保)(守)(估)(计)(是)(会)(有)(高)(单)(位)(数)(的)(增)(长)(的)(。预)(期)(在)(2017年)(OIBDA会)(达)(到)(28.25亿)(,大)(约)(9.6倍)(的)(估)(值)(,目)(标)(价)(为)(35美)(金)(以)(上)(。
【作)(者)(简)(介)(】
小)(科)(|格)(隆)(汇)(·专)(栏)(作)(者)(
美)(股)(资)(深)(投)(资)(者)(
善)(于)(挖)(掘)(被)(市)(场)(忽)(略)(的)(低)(价)(股)(
-格)(言)(-返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
阅)(读)(()
)


相关文章

版权所有:南方新闻网 粤ICP备05070829 网站标识码4400000131
主办:南方新闻网 协办:广东省经济和信息化委员会 承办:南方新闻网
建议使用1024×768分辨率 IE7.0以上版本浏览器